Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. Minor B-class activity was
observed in Region 618 (S08W90) as it rotated around the west limb.
Region 621 (S16E25) exhibits some minor magnetic complexity, but
activity was limited to occasional brightness fluctuations and weak
surging. New Regions 623 (N07W23) and 624 (S09E64) were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 621.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active. This
weak disturbance is in response to an elevated solar wind stream
(approximately 550 km/s) from a large transequatorial coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind speed from a coronal
hole will prolong this weak disturbance for much of the next three
days.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 090 Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 090/095/095 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 015/015-015/018-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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