Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been low. There has been a number
of C-class events produced by Region 601 (S10W47), with the largest
being a C8.3 on 02 May at 1115 UTC. There was a weak coronal mass
ejection (CME) produced by yesterday's C9.5, also produced by Region
601, that appears to have an earthward-directed component.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. Region 601 continues to have a slight chance to produce an
M-class x-ray event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar
wind speeds fell to below 400 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic
field is holding steady northward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for 03 May. A
high-speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole is
likely to graze the Earth's magnetic field. By 04 May, this should
pass, and magnetic activity should return to unsettled levels. With
the onset of the transient associated with the weak CME, activity
should again increase to active levels with periods of minor
storming for 05 May.
III. Event Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 098 Predicted 03 May-05 May 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 02 May 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 015/020-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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