Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been low. There have been several
C-class x-ray events, a C2.8 on 01 May at 0755 UTC, and a C9.5 at
1536 UTC, all from Region 601 (S09W34). This region has grown both
in area and number of spots over the last 24 hours. Region 602
(S13W66) remains steady. Region 603 (S15W37) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. There is an increased chance for an isolated M-class x-ray
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. A
combination of southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and
elevated solar wind speeds disrupted the Earth's magnetic field for
most of 30 April and into 01 May. A transient passage combined with
a solar sector boundary crossing appear to have influenced the
magnetic field earlier on 30 April.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels for the rest of 01
May. By 02 and 03 May, a high-speed solar wind stream associated
with a coronal hole is expected to intersect the Earth's magnetic
field. Activity should increase to minor storming late on 02 May
and into early 03 May, dropping back down to active levels by 04 May
as the high-speed stream passes.
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 094 Predicted 02 May-04 May 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 01 May 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 012/015-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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