Viewing archive of Friday, 28 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 618 (S10W44)
produced several impulsive C-class flares, the largest a C4.1 at
28/1011 UTC. Region 618 is stable in size, but has decreased in
magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 618 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Isolated
active conditions are possible late on day three (May 31) as a
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream begins to move into
geoeffective position. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit will bring
ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about 30 May to 2 June 2004.
During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere with
spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind plasma,
magnetic field, and particle data.
III. Event Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 102 Predicted 29 May-31 May 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 28 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 005/012-008/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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