Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 618 (S10W60)
produced one C-class flare, a C2.1/Sf at 28/2045 UTC. This region
has grown in size and is now in a gamma magnetic configuration. New
Region 621 (S14E62) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 618 and 621 may produce C- class and isolated M- class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active and isolated minor storm
conditions are possible on days two and three (31 May and 1 June) as
a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream begins to move into
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 101 Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 29 May 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 012/012-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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