Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 588 (S16E40)
produced a C3.1 flare at 04/1626 UTC. No significant development
was observed from active regions on the visible disk, and no new
regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 587 (S14W17) and 588 may produce isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels.
Increased activity may be due to the continued infuence of transient
activity from the arrival of a CME on 03 April.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active conditions throughout the period,
with isolated minor storming possible on days one and two (5-6
April) from a high speed solar wind stream associated with a
recurrent coronal hole that is rotating into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 109 Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 021/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 020/020-020/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
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