Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 April 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels again today. Region 582 (N14W51) continues to decay and has lost all penumbral area in the trailing polarity of the region. Region 587 (S13W03) has showed a slight decay since yesterday. Region 588 (S12E51) underwent a little growth and currently has sunspots of opposite polarity to the solar south of the dominant sunspot. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The onset of a shock occurred at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 03/0849Z. Preliminary review indicates that there was a magnetopause crossing of the GOES 12 satellite between 03/1630 and 1730Z. Interestingly, a sudden impulse which was measured as 14 nT on the Boulder magnetometer occurred at 03/1414Z. The transient may have been related to the full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that occurred on 31 March. Due to the SOHO/LASCO spacecraft maneuvers that were in progress at the end of March (no images were being retrieved) there is little certainty at this time as to whether this shock passage was the result of the full halo CME or related to other activity that preceded the long duration C3 event. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels for 4-5 April. During the first two days, isolated minor storm conditions may persist especially in the nighttime sectors, due to the potential of further transient activity, and the likelihood of a recurrent co-rotating interaction region. Major storm levels are expected due to a strong recurrent high speed coronal hole stream that is due to become geoeffective on 6 April.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Apr 107
  Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr  105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        03 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Apr  015/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  015/020-015/020-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%45%
Minor storm15%15%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%30%
Minor storm25%25%45%
Major-severe storm15%15%25%

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