Viewing archive of Friday, 2 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
582 (N14W35) continues to decay and has lost the gamma magnetic
structure in the leading portion of the region. Region 587 (S13E11)
has been in a steady growth phase in sunspot area and produced a low
level B-class flare today. Region 581 (S05W41) and 588 (S12E64)
both produced low level B-class flares as well. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 587 has the potential of producing a low level
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 3 April. A shock
passage from the long duration C3 flare that occurred on 31 March is
expected to arrive on 4 April. Active to minor storm levels are
possible with the shock passage. On 5 April active to minor storm
levels are also expected due to a recurrent co-rotating interaction
region.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 108 Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 005/007-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
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