Viewing archive of Friday, 30 April 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Newly numbered Region 602 (S14W53) generated a single C-class x-ray event on 30 April at 0547 UTC. Region 599 (N17W41) continues to decay in both area and number of spots. Along with Region 602, Region 601 (S09W20) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. Portions of a solar wind transient associated with a C3.1 x-ray event on 27 April likely elevated magnetic activity early on the 30th of April, but subsided to quiet levels by 1200 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet from 30 April through 02 May, rising to unsettled by 03 May. A high speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole is expected to impact the magnetic field by 03 May.
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Apr 089
  Predicted   01 May-03 May  090/090/095
  90 Day Mean        30 Apr 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Apr  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  008/012-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%35%
Minor storm10%15%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

All times in UTC

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