Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 567 (S14W66) has
undergone a reduction in both magnetic complexity and size since
yesterday. It is now only 80 millionths of the solar disk, and has
been reclassified a Beta magnetic configuration. Region 570
(S14E59) is now in full view, and has reached a size of 570
millionths. Magnetic classification remains Beta for the region.
However, there continues to be a significant distance between the
leading and trailing sunspots. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a chance for moderate. Region 570, and to a lesser
degree 567, continue to have a fair potential for an M-class flare
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the 8th. The
field is expected to then jump to mostly unsettled with isolated
periods of active levels during the 9th and 10th. A high-speed
solar wind stream is approaching, and is expected to influence the
Earth's magnetic field beginning late on the 9th.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 106 Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 07 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 005/008-012/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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