Viewing archive of Monday, 8 March 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 570 (S14E46) produced a C2.3 flare at 08/2011 UTC. This region exhibited slight growth over the past 24 hours, to an area of 750 millionths. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 570 has the potential to produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 9 March, with increasing activity to active and isolated minor storm conditions on 10 and 11 March. Increased activity is likely as Earth's magnetic field comes under the influence of a high speed solar wind stream originating from a coronal hole in geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Mar 108
  Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        08 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Mar  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  012/015-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

All times in UTC

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