Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 March 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 570 (S14E34) has produced numerous B- and C-class flares, including a C1.3/Sf at 09/0648 UTC. No significant development was observed from regions on the visible disk, and no new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 570 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Increased activity is most likely due to the effects of a co-rotating interaction region interacting with Earth's magnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active, with occassional minor storm conditions from the effects of high speed solar wind as a coronal hole moves into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Mar 109
  Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar  110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        09 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  002/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Mar  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  015/020-015/020-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm40%40%40%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm50%50%50%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

All times in UTC

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