Viewing archive of Monday, 5 April 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 588 (S15E25) produced numerous B-class flares during the period, and the region produced an M1.7/1f flare at 05/0555 UTC. A Type II radio sweep (with a speed of 836 km/s) was observed shortly after the M1.7 flare, and LASCO imagery indicated a partial-halo CME emerging from the southeast limb at 0606 UTC with a plane-of-sky speed of approximately 750 km/s. This CME does not appear to be directed towards Earth, but it may provide a glancing blow to the geomagnetic field. Region 588 has developed a north-south orientation and increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. New Region 589 (N10E54) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Regions 588 and 587 (S14W31) may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. ACE data indicate that Earth's geomagnetic field came under the influence of a corotating interaction region late on 4 November. Solar wind speed at ACE began to steadily increase to around 450 km/s at the end of the period, possibly indicating the beginning effects of a coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active, with isolated periods of minor storm conditions on days one and two (6-7 November) from the effects of the coronal hole. Activity should subside on day three (8 November) to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Apr 109
  Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr  110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        05 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  012/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  018/020-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm35%35%30%
Major-severe storm25%25%20%

All times in UTC

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