Viewing archive of Monday, 3 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 601 (S10W61)
produced several low C-class flares, including a C1.0 at 03/1343
UTC. New Region 604 (S19E52) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 601 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Isolated
active and minor storm conditions are possible on day three (6 May)
as the geomagnetic field comes under the influence of a high speed
solar wind stream from a geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 091 Predicted 04 May-06 May 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 03 May 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 010/015-012/015-018/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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