Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. No significant flares have
occurred in the last 24 hours, and no new regions have been
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels from
yesterday through 10/1600 UTC. Since then conditions have been
predominately unsettled. The high speed solar wind continues, but
has lessened from the 750-900 km/s of yesterday to a steady 620
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes continue to be at high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at unsettled to active levels for the next day,
with an increase to unsettled to minor storm levels beginning at the
end of tomorrow due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. There
is a chance for periods of major storm levels beginning on day two,
and into day three.
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 093 Predicted 11 May-13 May 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 10 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 020/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 020/042 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 015/020-020/025-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
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