Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 357 (S16E70)
was numbered today, but poses little threat of any significant
activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due
to the continued influence of a high speed solar wind stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit continues
to be at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels for the next three
days. A significant coronal hole will be in geoeffective position
at the beginning of the period, and is of great enough extent to
continue to impact the earth's magnetic field for several days.
III. Event Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 092 Predicted 12 May-14 May 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 11 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 032/043 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 025/034 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 025/030-030/030-030/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
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