Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 June 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 375 (N12W04) produced an M1/1f flare at 06/2338 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep. This region has grown in white light area and sunspot count and continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. A new region was numbered today as Region 380 (S16E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 375 and 380 both have the potential for continued C-class and M-class flaring. There is a chance for an isolated X-class event from Region 375.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily unsettled to active with periods of minor storm conditions for the next three days. These conditions are expected due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Jun 133
  Predicted   08 Jun-10 Jun  130/125/120
  90 Day Mean        07 Jun 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun  010/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Jun  020/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  020/025-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%45%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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