Viewing archive of Friday, 6 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of numerous low level C-class events. The
main sources for the activity were Region 375 (N12E09), Region 378
(N16E57) and a new region behind east limb at about S14. Region 375
showed flux emergence and the formation of a delta configuration
during the first half of the day. There was a slight decay of flux
and sunspot area in this region during the last half of the day. New
Region 379 (S19W68) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 375 during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Solar wind speeds showed a marked increase beginning around
0200 UTC and have been running from 600-700 km/s due to another
coronal hole rotating into a favorable position. So far, however,
the geomagnetic response has been mild. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours, and is
expected to increase to mostly active with minor storm periods for
the 2nd and 3rd days. The increase is expected as a response to a
continuation of today's high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jun to 09 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 126 Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 06 Jun 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 013/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 015/020-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun to 09 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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