Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 June 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 380 (S15E56) produced an M4/2n event at 08/1611 UTC. This region has produced several C-class flares and shown significant growth since yesterday. Region 375 (N13W18) continues to produce mid to high level C-class flares and maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 375 and 380 have potential for producing an isolated X-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm conditions. This activity seems to be the result of the expected coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at unsettled to active conditions for the three days of the forecast period. The continued elevated solar wind speeds are expected to produce isolated minor storm conditions during local nighttime.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jun 153
  Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun  160/155/155
  90 Day Mean        08 Jun 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  026/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jun  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  020/025-020/025-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%45%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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