Viewing archive of Monday, 12 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Regions 358 (N10E23)
and 359 (S16W18) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. The newly numbered regions pose little threat of significant
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due
to a continued high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous altitude reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels for the next two
days. A significant coronal hole has moved into geoeffective
position, and promises to be a threat for at least 36 hours. Levels
should fall off to unsettled to minor storm by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 094 Predicted 13 May-15 May 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 12 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 022/031 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 022/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 030/030-030/030-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
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