Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next 24 hours. A new active area on the east limb
(returning Region 336 at latitude N13) appears to be fairly well
developed, and may effect an increased chance of isolated C-class
flares in the following days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due
to a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next two
days, falling off to unsettled to active on day three. The current
coronal hole is rotating out of geoeffective position. With that,
the associated high-speed solar wind stream should abate.
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| Class M | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 096 Predicted 14 May-16 May 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 13 May 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 014/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 025/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 025/025-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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