Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 May 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May

Class M	10%	10%	15%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       14 May 096
  Predicted   15 May-17 May  105/110/115
  90 Day Mean        14 May 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  024/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 May  025/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  020/020-015/015-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	35%	25%	25%
Minor storm	20%	15%	15%
Major-severe storm	10%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	35%	35%	35%
Minor storm	15%	15%	15%
Major-severe storm	10%	05%	05%

VII. Comments The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 will once again become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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