Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Today's only C-class flare was a C2/Sf from Region 330 (N07W57) at
0854 UTC. New Region 335 (S22E57) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for additional isolated C-class
flare events during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
declined steadily during the past 24 hours with day end values
between 450 to 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were
at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for the next three days, with a
chance for some isolated active periods. A coronal hole will be
rotating to a favorable position sometime between 15 and 17 April
and is expected to produce an increase in geomagnetic activity
levels.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 102 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 100/095/090 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 010/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 012/012-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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