Viewing archive of Friday, 9 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. There was one C-class event
during the past 24 hours, a C3 at 0048 UTC from behind the west limb
at about S15 (Region 349). New Region 356 (N15E63) was assigned
today and is a small D-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels from the
beginning of the period through about 09/1500 UTC. Since then
conditions have been predominantly unsettled. Solar wind
observations show persistence of high speed solar wind (750-900
km/s) and weak to moderate oscillations in Bz for most of the day.
However, there did appear to be a slight decline in speed beginning
after 1830 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes continue to
be at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days due to
persistence. An increase to mostly active is expected on the third
day as yet another coronal hole will be rotating into favorable
position at that time.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 097 Predicted 10 May-12 May 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 09 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 022/030 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 020/036 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 015/020-015/020-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
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