Viewing archive of Monday, 7 October 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-class flares occurred. Region 139 (N11E06) remains the largest, most complex sunspot group on the disk and continues to grow slowly. The large leader and follower sunspot umbra are contained within the same penumbra but do not appear to be close enough to be technically classified as a delta configuration. New Regions 143 (S19W38) and 144 (N12E44) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 139 is the most likely source of M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. The most active periods were from 07/0300 to 0900 UTC and followed several hours of sustained southward IMF.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm levels. A high speed coronal hole stream may influence activity levels over the next two or three days.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Oct 164
  Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct  165/170/175
  90 Day Mean        07 Oct 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  009/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Oct  020/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  020/025-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm25%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm35%30%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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