Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 September 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 105 (S08E42) produced the largest event of the period, an impulsive M2/1n flare with associated Type-II and Type-IV radio sweeps, however no significant CME was visible in LASCO imagery following the event. Numerous C-class flares also occurred, with many from Region 105 but also from Regions 107 (N11E43) and 103 (N15W21). Region 105 remains the largest and most complex region on the visible disk, while Regions 103 and 107 have both undergone rapid growth in size and complexity during the period. Three new regions were numbered today: 108 (S23E49), 109 (S08E18), and 110 (N20E18). All are presently small and simply structured.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels for the next three days. A chance for an isolated major flare event exists for Region 105.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions. Persistent southward Bz during most of the past 24 hours was responsible for the elevated periods of activity.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active for the next 48-72 hours, as an equatorial extension of the south polar coronal hole rotates though geoeffective heliographic longitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Sep 221
  Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep  220/225/225
  90 Day Mean        10 Sep 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Sep  013/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  012/015-015/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

All times in UTC

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