Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 105 (S08E42)
produced the largest event of the period, an impulsive M2/1n flare
with associated Type-II and Type-IV radio sweeps, however no
significant CME was visible in LASCO imagery following the event.
Numerous C-class flares also occurred, with many from Region 105 but
also from Regions 107 (N11E43) and 103 (N15W21). Region 105 remains
the largest and most complex region on the visible disk, while
Regions 103 and 107 have both undergone rapid growth in size and
complexity during the period. Three new regions were numbered
today: 108 (S23E49), 109 (S08E18), and 110 (N20E18). All are
presently small and simply structured.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate levels for the next three days. A chance for an
isolated major flare event exists for Region 105.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions.
Persistent southward Bz during most of the past 24 hours was
responsible for the elevated periods of activity.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active for the next 48-72 hours, as an
equatorial extension of the south polar coronal hole rotates though
geoeffective heliographic longitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 221 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 220/225/225 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 013/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 012/015-015/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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