Viewing archive of Monday, 9 September 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 105 (S08E54) produced the largest event, an M2/2n flare at 09/1752 UTC. This event was accompanied by faint sympathetic flares from Regions 103 (N15W07) and 96 (S15W57), both of which also produced lesser C-class flares earlier in the day. Region 105 is the largest spot group on the visible disk, exhibiting an apparent beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and an areal coverage in excess of 1200 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly moderate for the next three days. Region 105 is a likely source of further M-class flare activity, and could also produce an isolated major flare. Region 103 is undergoing some growth in size and complexity and could also be a source of M-class activity during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods observed at higher latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field conditions are expected to be quiet to active during the next three days. An evolving period of persistent southward Bz may produce isolated active periods over the next several hours, while coronal hole effects are expected to produce active conditions during the second and third days of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Sep 206
  Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep  210/220/225
  90 Day Mean        09 Sep 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  019/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Sep  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  008/008-012/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%35%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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