Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 September 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 105 (S07E66) produced an M1/Sf flare at 08/0143 UTC. This sunspot group is still near the east limb but appears to be a fairly large, elongated F-type region. Other regions currently on the disk are relatively small and magnetically simple. New Regions 106 (N28E50) and 107 (N11E70) were numbered. Region 107 generated a number of subflares today, the largest being a C4/Sf at 08/1457 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 105 is the most likely source of energetic flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. The disturbance which began yesterday has ended. Activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels since about 08/0600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event ended at 08/0145 UTC (start: 07/0440 UTC and 208 pfu peak: 07/1650 UTC).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Activity levels may increase by the end of the three-day forecast period in response to an extension of the south polar coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Sep 192
  Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep  200/210/220
  90 Day Mean        08 Sep 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  024/045
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Sep  014/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  010/012-008/008-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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