Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 October 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity reached high levels again this period. Region 139 (N12E32) produced a major flare late in the period, an M5/1n flare (in progress at issue time), and a Type II radio sweep (404 km/s). The flare began at 05/2042Z and appears to have peaked at M5.9 at 2100Z. This region also produced an M2/Sf at 04/2243Z with associated Type II sweep (418 km/s). The rapid growth observed yesterday has slowed considerably, and though no delta configuration is obvious today, the region continues to grow slowly and now nears 700 millionths of white light areal coverage. Region 137 (S19W33) produced an M1/Sf at 05/1046Z. This region has settled down after producing four M-class flares in the last period. Some slight decay was noted. New Regions 141 (S07E20) and 142 (N07E64) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels. M-class activity is likely from Regions 137 and 139, and there's a small chance for another major flare from Region 139.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field continues to be predominantly southward. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate to high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to minor storm levels. Transient effects from the rather weak CMEs on 3 and 4 Oct may enhance the disturbed periods on days one and two. A large, recurrent southern coronal hole will move into geoeffective position late on day two through day three.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
Class M60%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Oct 155
  Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct  160/170/175
  90 Day Mean        05 Oct 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  043/048
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Oct  022/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  020/020-020/020-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm35%35%35%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%

All times in UTC

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