Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 October 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 139 (N11E19) produced two M-class flares, the largest an M2.4/1n at 06/0451 UTC. Region 139 has shown slight decay in overall area coverage but some area growth and mixing polarities in the leader spots. There has been little change in Region 137 (S19W48) over the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 139 and 137 have the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A six-hour period of southward Bz (02Z to 08Z) was associated with a sector boundary crossing and resulted in active to minor storm conditions (03Z to 09Z). Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Transient effects from weak CME activity on 04 Oct are possible on day one of the forecast period. Coronal hole effects are expected on day one and day two of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Oct 162
  Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct  170/175/180
  90 Day Mean        06 Oct 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  012/029
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Oct  018/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  020/020-025/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%30%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%35%
Minor storm35%35%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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