Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 November 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. An optically uncorrelated long duration C3 event occurred at 02/0607 UTC. The LASCO/SOHO imagery indicate the possible source as being a CME observed just over the NW limb which does not appear to be Earth directed. Region 177 (N16E31) remains the largest sunspot group on the visible disk and has grown slightly since yesterday. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 181 (S06E42) and 182 (S17E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 177 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated period of minor storm conditions at 02/1200 UTC. A steady increase in the solar wind with intermittent periods of southward Bz allowed for the minor storming observed today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately unsettled to active for the next three days in response to a recurring coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
Class M45%45%45%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Nov 165
  Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov  170/175/175
  90 Day Mean        02 Nov 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  005/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Nov  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  020/025-015/025-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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