Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been low. An optically uncorrelated
long duration C3 event occurred at 02/0607 UTC. The LASCO/SOHO
imagery indicate the possible source as being a CME observed just
over the NW limb which does not appear to be Earth directed. Region
177 (N16E31) remains the largest sunspot group on the visible disk
and has grown slightly since yesterday. Two new regions were
numbered today as Region 181 (S06E42) and 182 (S17E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 177 has the potential to produce an isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated
period of minor storm conditions at 02/1200 UTC. A steady increase
in the solar wind with intermittent periods of southward Bz allowed
for the minor storming observed today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled to active for the next three
days in response to a recurring coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 165 Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 005/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 020/025-015/025-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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