Viewing archive of Friday, 1 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Several low to mid
C-class flares were observed during the period. Region 175 (N15E18)
and Region 177 (N15E43) were responsible for the majority of the
events. Region 177 has doubled in area and sunspot count in the
last 24 hours and is now averaging around 310 millionths white light
area with 15 spots. Two new regions were numbered today as Region
179 (N02E72) and 180 (S11E70).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 175 and 177 have the potential to produce an
isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 2 November. Unsettled to
active conditions are possible on 3-4 November due to the effects of
a recurring coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 162 Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 170/175/180 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 013/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 010/012-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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