Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 November 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 177 (N16E18) produced an M1/1f event at 03/1403 UTC. This region remains the largest and most complex of the numbered regions on the solar disk and contains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 180 (S10E43) has grown in spot count since yesterday and also contains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Three new regions were numbered today as Region 183 (N19W24), 184 (S06E51), and 185 (S12E77).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 177 and 180 have potential for producing an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm conditions. The solar wind data indicates the possible effects are from a high speed stream associated with a coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 04 November with predominately quiet to unsettled conditions for 05-06 November.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Nov 169
  Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov  170/170/175
  90 Day Mean        03 Nov 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  013/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm25%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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