Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 177 (N16E18)
produced an M1/1f event at 03/1403 UTC. This region remains the
largest and most complex of the numbered regions on the solar disk
and contains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 180
(S10E43) has grown in spot count since yesterday and also contains a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Three new regions were numbered
today as Region 183 (N19W24), 184 (S06E51), and 185 (S12E77).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 177 and 180 have potential for producing an
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm
conditions. The solar wind data indicates the possible effects are
from a high speed stream associated with a coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 04 November with predominately
quiet to unsettled conditions for 05-06 November.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 169 Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 03 Nov 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 013/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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