Viewing archive of Monday, 4 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 180 (S10E30)
produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive C4.4/Sf flare
at 04/1823 UTC. This region has more than doubled in white-light
penumbral coverage since yesterday and produced the vast majority of
the reported flare activity today. A gamma magnetic structure
remains evident. Region 177 (N16E05) has shown slight decay today
although it remains a beta-gamma magnetic group. The largest event
seen today from this region was a C3.7/Sf flare that occurred at
04/0330 UTC. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 177 and 180 exhibit the potential
for M-class flare production.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly southward
and the solar wind speed was elevated throughout the period in
response to a geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with occasional minor
to major storm levels mostly at high latitudes through day two.
Mostly unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are
expected on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 177 Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 175/175/180 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 015/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 012/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
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