Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 October 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 139 (N11W07) remains a fairly large sunspot group with some mixed polarity spots but has only produced low-level C-class flares over the past 48 hours. Growth in the region has ceased and little change in appearance was noted since yesterday. New Region 145 (N12E76) is rotating onto the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 139 is the most likely source of M-flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels. The sustained southward IMF experienced over the past two days appears to be coming to an end. For the past few hours Bz has returned to +/- 5 nT variations.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active. Nighttime substorms are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Oct 165
  Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct  165/165/170
  90 Day Mean        08 Oct 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  021/039
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Oct  018/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  015/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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