Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9278 (N09E37) produced
today's largest event, a C9/Sf at 1024Z. The region covers a
relatively small area, but showed additional brightenings and
subflares during the past 24 hours. Region 9279 (S11E54) contributed
a C3/1f at 18/2312Z. New region 9280 (N10E72) rotated into view
today as a moderate-sized D-type group but has been stable so far.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
but there is a slight-to-fair chance for an isolated M-class event
sometime over the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next 24 hours. An
increase to mostly active is expected during the 2nd and 3rd days as
a response to the full-halo CME that occurred on 18 December.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 199 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 200/200/195 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 010/012-025/025-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
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