Viewing archive of Monday, 18 December 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9269 (N11W06) produced today's largest flare, a C7/Sf at 1111Z. The event was associated with a relatively slow, full-halo coronal mass ejection as observed by LASCO imagery. An additional CME occurred, beginning with the lift-off of a portion of the southern polar crown filament (near S50E01) at 1824Z. The remainder of today's activity consisted of numerous C-class events from a variety of regions, including Region 9278 (N09E51) which has rotated more clearly into view as a D-type sunspot group. New Region 9279 (S11E62) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event from any of regions 9264 (S25W36), 9267 (N08W57), 9276 (S12W85), or 9278 (N09E51).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days. An increase to active, with a possibility for minor storm levels, is expected on the third day, in response to today's halo CME event.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
Class M35%30%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Dec 198
  Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec  195/195/190
  90 Day Mean        18 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Dec  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  010/010-010/010-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%35%
Minor storm10%10%30%
Major-severe storm01%01%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm10%10%30%
Major-severe storm01%01%20%

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