Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Mostly optically uncorrelated
minor C-class events occurred during the period. Region 9306
(N12W25) did produce a C8/Sf at 14/0254Z. Region 9306 continued to
show growth and is currently an Fac beta-gamma sunspot group with
over 500 millionths of white light area and approximately 60 spots.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with an increasing chance of M-Class activity from Region 9306.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A flilament erupted on
the northwest limb at approximately 14/0430Z. This event and the
associated CME following was observed in the SOHO/LASCO imagery. At
this time, most of the energy from this CME does not appear
earth-directed.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 176 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 185/190/190 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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