Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several minor C-class events
occurred during the period from Regions 9302 (N19W41) and 9306
(N13W13). The largest was a C3/Sf event produced by Region 9306 at
13/1946Z. Some minor growth was observed in Regions 9306 and 9308
(N16E07). No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with the chance of an isoloated M-class event possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A weak interplanetary
shock passed the ACE spacecraft just before 13/0200Z. However, this
shock only produced unsettled conditions. It is believed this
activity is related to the halo CME observed on 10 January. Most of
the energy associated with the CME on 10 January was directed
eastward from the sun.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled during the period with
isolated active conditions possible on the first day.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 184 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 185/195/195 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 010/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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