Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Nearly all of today's
numerous C-class flares came from newly emerged Region 9276
(S12W72). The largest of these flares was a C5/Sf at 1840Z. The
region emerged from an area of little more than plage to a 130
millionths D-type sunspot group during the past 24 hours. Two
additional regions were assigned today: Region 9277 (N16W63) emerged
as a small H-type group, and Region 9278 (N09E67) rotated into view
as a simple H-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next 72 hours, but there is a slight
chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with one active
period from 1500-1800Z. The slight increase from yesterday's quiet
levels is most likely related to about 20 hours of sustained, weakly
negative values of the Z-component of the interplanetary magnetic
field.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled during the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 197 Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 195/195/195 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 011/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 010/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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