Viewing archive of Monday, 20 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been low, with only minor C-class
events observed for a second straight day. Although regions 9231
(N24W23), 39-spot Fki beta-gamma, and 9235 (N13E06), 23-spot Eai
beta-gamma, have been relatively quiet since each produced an M1
flare on 18 Nov, both retain the potential for further M-class
activity.. New region 9238 (S23W08), 3-spot Cro beta, was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate, with isolated M-class events still probable from either
region 9231 or 9235.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled at all latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 174 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 180/180/185 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 010/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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