Viewing archive of Monday, 20 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been low, with only minor C-class events observed for a second straight day. Although regions 9231 (N24W23), 39-spot Fki beta-gamma, and 9235 (N13E06), 23-spot Eai beta-gamma, have been relatively quiet since each produced an M1 flare on 18 Nov, both retain the potential for further M-class activity.. New region 9238 (S23W08), 3-spot Cro beta, was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate, with isolated M-class events still probable from either region 9231 or 9235.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled at all latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Nov 174
  Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov  180/180/185
  90 Day Mean        20 Nov  171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Nov  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  010/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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