Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate, due to a single impulsive M1/Sn flare from Region 9237 (N10W61), 7-spot Cro beta, at 21/1917Z. Prior to this event, only sporadic minor C-class activity was observed. New Region 9239 (S23E73), a single spot Hsx alpha, was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. In addition to continuing activity from Region 9237 as it approaches the west limb, Regions 9231 (S23W36) and 9235 (N11W08) remain possible sources for moderate events. Previously active heliographic longitudes, thought to be the source for an impressive full-halo CME on 16 November, are also due to return beginning on 23 November.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet, with isolated periods of unsettled conditions at all latitudes for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Nov 185
  Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov  180/180/185
  90 Day Mean        21 Nov 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Nov  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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