Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. The day's most interesting
occurrence was a long-duration C4 x-ray flare which peaked at 1125
UTC. This nearly seven-hour long event was likely from a site past
west limb. LASCO imagery show a CME from that approximate location
during this time. The disk regions were stable. One new region, 9209
(S25E71) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An enhancement in the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began at
approximately 1330 UTC. The flux is currently near 10 pfu. This
increase is attributed to the flare/CME activity from the west limb
at 1125 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled throughout the period. The
greater than 10 MeV protons should return to background levels
during the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 164 Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 25 Oct 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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