Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 October 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The day's most interesting occurrence was a long-duration C4 x-ray flare which peaked at 1125 UTC. This nearly seven-hour long event was likely from a site past west limb. LASCO imagery show a CME from that approximate location during this time. The disk regions were stable. One new region, 9209 (S25E71) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began at approximately 1330 UTC. The flux is currently near 10 pfu. This increase is attributed to the flare/CME activity from the west limb at 1125 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily unsettled throughout the period. The greater than 10 MeV protons should return to background levels during the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Oct 164
  Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct  170/170/175
  90 Day Mean        25 Oct 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Oct  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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