Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 October 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity remained low. Region 9209 (S24E59) produced a C8/1n flare at 1611 UTC, the largest event of the period. It also had other, smaller C-class flares. The other area of activity was the northwest limb, where a C6/sf erupted from a swath of spotless plage near N17W77. That flare occurred at 1137 UTC. One new region, 9210 (S30E74) rotated into view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9209 may produce an isolated M-class event during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A proton event at greater than 10 MeV began at 0040 UTC, reached a maximum of 15 pfu at 0340 UTC, and ended at 1000 UTC. This activity is related to the CME off the west limb near midday on the 25th.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet to unsettled for the next 36-48 hours. A mild disturbance from yesterday's halo CME is anticipated to begin late on the 28th. Active conditions are possible through the end of the period as the magnetosphere takes an oblique hit from the solar ejection.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Oct 171
  Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct  175/175/180
  90 Day Mean        26 Oct 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Oct  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  010/010-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%40%40%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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