Viewing archive of Friday, 27 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M1 xray flare at 2056
UTC, with no reported optical association, was the day's largest
event. Earlier, a C8 xray flare at 1127 UTC, quickly followed by a
C9 at 1203 UTC, are thought to stem from regions now past the NW
limb. The visible disk was stable. One new region, 9211 (N30W43),
emerged during the day.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active. Effects of a CME on 25 October
are due to begin in the next 24 hours. High latitudes may experience
episodes of minor storm conditions. Conditions should calm by the
end of the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 176 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 180/180/185 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 009/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 015/015-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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