Viewing archive of Friday, 27 October 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. An M1 xray flare at 2056 UTC, with no reported optical association, was the day's largest event. Earlier, a C8 xray flare at 1127 UTC, quickly followed by a C9 at 1203 UTC, are thought to stem from regions now past the NW limb. The visible disk was stable. One new region, 9211 (N30W43), emerged during the day.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active. Effects of a CME on 25 October are due to begin in the next 24 hours. High latitudes may experience episodes of minor storm conditions. Conditions should calm by the end of the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Oct 176
  Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct  180/180/185
  90 Day Mean        27 Oct 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  009/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Oct  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  015/015-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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