Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity remained at moderate levels. An
unobserved M1 x-ray flare occurred at 1849 UTC. Weather hampered
patrol, but that event is likely from one of the new regions just on
the disk. Newly numbered region 9212 (N06E76) produced a C9/sf at
0710 UTC. Another new region, 9214 (S13E70) has been bright in
H-alpha. The third new region, 9213 (N00E71), has been quiet. The
visible disk has ten spotted regions. Little else of significance
occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet early in the period. The anticipated
shock from the CME on the 25th passed the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 0900 UTC. Enhanced IMF and speed followed, resulting
in a stint of active to minor storm conditions. Unsettled levels
prevailed by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to mildly active for the next 24 hours. The
calming trend should continue throughout the interval, with
unsettled conditions dominating the last two days.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 182 Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 185/190/195 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 015/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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