Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 01 OCT 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
X-RAY FLARES, AN X1 AT 30/2321Z AND M5 AT 01/0701Z, ARE BELIEVED TO
HAVE BEEN PRODUCED BY REGION 9169 THAT JUST RECENTLY PASSED BEHIND
THE WEST LIMB. A 200 SFU TENFLARE ACCOMPANIED THE M5 EVENT. A
LONG-DURATION M2 FLARE AT 01/1410Z IS BELIEVED TO HAVE ORIGINATED
FROM REGION 9178 (S22E24); THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED NUMEROUS
C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 9176 (S10E15) PRODUCED A C3/SF FLARE WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (SHOCK SPEED 1100 KM/S). A 12-DEGREE
FILAMENT DISAPPEARED OVERNIGHT FROM N22W37. NEW REGION 9180
(S34W21) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. WHILE REGION 9169, WHICH IS BELIEVED TO HAVE CAUSED
THE RECENT MAJOR FLARES, IS NOW WELL BEHIND THE LIMB, BOTH REGIONS
9176 (S09E18) AND 9178 REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-FLARES.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM ACTIVE TO QUIET CONDITIONS. ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 01/06Z, AT WHICH POINT
THE SOLAR WIND SPEED AND INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN TO DROP
TO NOMINAL LEVELS. RELATIVISTIC ELECTRONS AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
REACHED MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY, WITH ACTIVITY
INCREASING FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE
WILL BE GEO-EFFECTIVELY POSITIONED BY DAY TWO. IN ADDITION, EFFECTS
FROM ANY OF THE MANY SOLAR EVENTS TODAY COULD IMPACT THE EARTH LATE
ON DAY TWO INTO DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 02 OCT to 04 OCT
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 OCT 202 Predicted 02 OCT-04 OCT 190/190/185 90 Day Mean 01 OCT 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 SEP 025/045 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 OCT 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 OCT-04 OCT 010/010-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 OCT to 04 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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