Viewing archive of Monday, 2 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9177 (N31W54)
produced an M1/1n flare at 02/1801Z; another uncorrelated M1
occurred at 02/0013Z. Region 9176 (S09E05) produced a C4/Sf at
02/0257Z that was followed by a faint CME seen in LASCO imagery.
New regions 9181 (S32E64) and 9182 (S03E72) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Quiet conditions
predominated, with unsettled to active conditions from 12Z to 21Z
during a prolonged period of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storming on day
two and three. Effects of a recurrent coronal hole are expected to
begin tomorrow. One of the many solar events of the past two days,
including today's CME, could bring transient related activity on day
two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 203 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 200/200/190 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 012/012-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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