Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 September 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 9154 (S19W07) CONTINUED IN A GRADUAL GROWTH PHASE AND REMAINED THE LARGEST AND MOST FLARE PRODUCTIVE OF THE VISIBLE REGIONS. IT PRODUCED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C6/SF AT 05/0008 UTC. REGION 9149 (N13W35) SHOWED SIGNS OF MINOR DECAY AND PRODUCED AN ISOLATED SUBFLARE. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. SOHO/LASCO IMAGES INDICATED A PARTIAL-HALO CME ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE OF 4 SEPTEMBER (32-DEGREE EXTENT, N13W38).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 9154 MAY PRODUCE AN M-CLASS FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON DAY ONE. ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS ARE FORECAST FOR 7 - 8 SEPTEMBER DUE TO AN EXPECTED CME PASSAGE AT EARTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE OF 4 SEPTEMBER. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT MAY REACH HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 06 SEP to 08 SEP
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 SEP 180
  Predicted   06 SEP-08 SEP  185/190/190
  90 Day Mean        05 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 SEP  011/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 SEP  007/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 SEP-08 SEP  015/012-030/030-030/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 SEP to 08 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%30%30%
Major-severe storm01%15%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%35%35%
Major-severe storm05%20%20%

All times in UTC

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