Viewing archive of Monday, 4 September 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 04 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 9154 (S19E06) SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SPOT COUNT AND AREA. IT PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 04/0109 UTC ALONG WITH ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES. REGION 9149 (N14W22) SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY SMALL AND STABLE. A 32-DEGREE FILAMENT, LAST SEEN NEAR N13 W38, ERUPTED FROM THE DISK DURING 04/0500 - 0600 UTC. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR ANOTHER M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 9154. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 9149. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL 04/1330 UTC. FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED TO QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY DECREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE SECOND DAY. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED BEGIN LATE ON THE THIRD DAY IN RESPONSE TO TODAY'S FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE.
III. Event Probabilities 05 SEP to 07 SEP
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 SEP 171
  Predicted   05 SEP-07 SEP  175/175/180
  90 Day Mean        04 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 SEP  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 SEP  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 SEP-07 SEP  010/012-010/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 SEP to 07 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%40%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%45%
Minor storm10%10%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

All times in UTC

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